International Monetary Fund maintains global growth forecasts, hails Turkey's export recovery
Jul 25, 2017, 11:42
The fund also said that steady interest rate hikes in the United States could post a risk to growth by making lending more hard.
The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for the United Kingdom and USA economies after soft performances in the first quarter of the year.
Global growth forecasts were left unchanged at 3.5% for 2017 and 3.6% for next year, with the report stating that stronger than expected performances in the Eurozone, China and Japan would be likely to offset more sluggish performances around the globe.
The US also had its economic forecast downgraded to 2.1% from 2.3%.
The 2017 growth projection for China was revised upward 0.1 point to 6.7 percent and that for five Association of Southeast Asian Nations members - Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam - was raised 0.1 point to 5.1 percent.
The organization estimates that Latin America and the Caribbean will grow 1 percent in 2017 and 1.9 percent in 2018, which - in both cases - is 0.1 percent lower than its April forecast.
It sees GDP growth of 1% in 2018, 0.2 of a point more than the previous forecast.
Overall, the International Monetary Fund expects the eurozone to expand by 1.9 per cent this year, 0.2 percentage point more than its previous projection. "We identified the risk of a sudden financial tightening which might particularly have an adverse effect on emerging markets but might also impinge on highly indebted corporates and sovereigns elsewhere in the world", he said.
The IMF's prediction that the global economy will grow by 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018 remains unchanged, driven largely by China, Japan and the EU.
The country's economy was already struggling with official unemployment of 27.7 percent, as well as financial fallout from scandals surrounding President Jacob Zuma.
But with growth still buoyant and inflation tamed, the Philippines is enjoying "an excellent combination", the International Monetary Fund official added.
"However, the outlook for South Africa remains hard, with elevated political uncertainty and weak consumer and business confidence, and the country's growth forecast was consequently marked down for 2018".
China too has been revised up, reflecting a strong first three months of 2017 and the expectations of continued government fiscal support.
"While risks balanced in the near term with stronger and more sustained cyclical growth momentum in Europe, where political risks has diminished, downside risks are skewed in the medium term", he added. In the year to June, the annual rate of inflation was 1.3 per cent.
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But if this is representative of how such export cuts will be calculated, then price hikes will depend on increased demand. Yesterday, they fell $1.53, or 3 percent, to settle at $50.31 a barrel on their last day as the front-month contract.
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