Oil gains ahead of producer meeting; Nigeria, Libya output in focus
Jul 25, 2017, 11:39
Hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil are lacking from the global energy market because of joint efforts with OPEC, Russia's oil minister said Monday.
In the meantime, it might be hard to bring Libya and Nigeria, the two members exempt from quotas, into the fold, said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
OPEC and some non-OPEC states including Russian Federation agreed in 2016 to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in a deal that has been extended to March 2018.
Rising output from US shale producers has offset the impact of the output curbs, as has climbing production from Libya and Nigeria.
OPEC members Nigeria and Libya have been exempt from the output cuts, and market watchers remain concerned that production from the two countries is offsetting the impact of the global reduction.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Libya and Nigeria should cap output when their output stabilised, the Financial Times reported.
Russia, which is heavily reliant on oil revenues, holds a presidential election next year, while Saudi Arabia needs higher prices to balance its budget and support next year's planned listing of state oil firm Saudi Aramco.
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On a recent interview, Saudi's energy minister Khalid al-Falih noted that the coalition's compliance regarding the output cut is derailing, even with the strong deal they recently made; he believes that there are a sluggish growth and progress which is needed to be tackled "head on".
"From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude remains under pressure on the daily charts and a breakdown below $45.50 should encourage a further depreciation towards $44".
Oil prices rose slightly on Monday.
Yesterday, they fell $1.53, or 3 percent, to settle at $50.31 a barrel on their last day as the front-month contract.
OPEC secretary, General Mohammad Barkindo said on Sunday that supply and demand in the oil market was moving in suppliers' favor, but that the rebalancing had been slower than expected.
With peak driving season commencing today coupled with Trump's probable intention to avoid a climate control agreement, we may well see crude oil benchmark futures prices steadily rising over the next three months leading to a significant boost for United States of America and Russian shale oil drillers. But if this is representative of how such export cuts will be calculated, then price hikes will depend on increased demand.
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